There are some unexposed horses in this race, but I think the price is fair on this one given he's had the benefit of a run.
This seven-year-old gelding is still actually a maiden after 11 starts over hurdles, but there is nothing ungenuine about him, he's just found life harder after going agonisingly close on several occasions.
This has seen his handicap mark go from 103 to 116, something that would usually put me off from doing such a selection. That said, I still think there is enough reason to think he can win off this mark, largely down to how well the stable have done since he last raced in May.
They have hit 22 winners already this season, and we're only half-way through – that’s already 11 more than last year, and more than any other season on record. On close examination of why this has happened, it's simply because the horses are in better health, and have improved over a stone.
The fact the selection went so close on his seasonal debut over a trip short of his best, gives me hope that stepped up in trip again (2m4f > 2m7.5f) that he can improve again, too.
This five-year-old gelding was very useful on the flat – 94 at his peak – yet he makes his handicap hurdle debut off just 115. The rule of thumb is that you can add up to 45lb on to a horse's flat mark over hurdles, so he could technically be as good as almost 140, but probably not. I do think the handicapper has been kind to him, but I'm hoping the trip is a bit too far for him, and he is priced accordingly.
The best horse racing tipsters will often suggest the number of points you should stake on each bet. For example, a two-point win, or a one point each way bet. This method can be used for all levels of horse racing bettor, as you decide how much each betting point is worth.
If you start with a total betting pot of £50, each point is worth 50p. If you start with £100, each point is worth £1. Simply divide your total betting pot by 100 to work out how much each point is worth.
Once you boost your betting bank by 50% with winnings, you should increase your point value accordingly. For example, if you build up 150 points, your point value should increase by 50%, so £1 becomes £1.50 and £5 becomes £7.50.
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