For this week’s tip I’ve headed to the third race of the day on the Norfolk coast as there’s a gelding there with intriguing each way odds. The 2:00 includes a heavy favourite and while at the time of writing the ground is officially Good to Firm, her record on soft ground is poor and there is plenty of rain expected later, which brings a more appealing option into play. We’ve had a couple of near misses recently, so getting some each way value here could be a great start to the weekend.
This three-year-old gelding looks worth each way interest in this eight-runner Class 6 handicap. He’s now stepped up to 1m6f for the first time and ran well to finish 3rd in two 1m3.5f races in the last couple of months. In both, he shaped like he would be suited by the further distance, so it was no surprise to see him well-beaten when dropped back to 1m2f on the All-Weather 18 days ago. He has been dropped 2lb for that and 6lb for his five handicap starts, despite finishing 3rd in four of them, and now returns to turf running in a Class 6 race off a career low mark of 65 (Racing Post Rating, RPR). The James Ferguson yard is in form (Last 14 days: 2-12, 17% strike rate), David Egan takes the ride for the first time and PREY FOR GLORY (EW) appears to be versatile ground wise which could be significant with lots of rain forecast. He has ran well twice at the track, he will be fully-fit on his fifth start of the season, re-applied cheek-pieces could help and, crucially, the step up in trip could unlock significant improvement.
The odds-on favourite will be a danger for the in-form Sir Mark Prescott yard (Last 14 days: 6-20, 30% strike rate) with further improvement likely on only her second handicap start. This three-year-old filly got off the mark on just her fifth start by winning a similar Class 6 race, making her handicap debut over 1m4f at Salisbury 12 days ago. That was on Good to Firm and she was well-beaten on Soft on her previous start so if the forecast rain gets in to the ground she could prove vulnerable stepping up to 1m6f for the first time and having to carry a 6lb penalty.
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