We’re off to Newmarket today, where a fresh filly has a chance to achieve some of her true potential in a Class 5 race over 1 mile.
The least exposed runner in the field showed considerable potential on only her third start, running against better rivals than these, in a Fillies' Novice Stakes over C&D on today’s Good to Firm Going, when making her seasonal debut 4 weeks ago.
On that occasion, this well-bred three-year-old filly who is a half-sister to five winners, was returning from a 230-day break against race-fit rivals before finishing a respectable seven lengths 5th of eight on her first attempt over this 1-mile trip.
Her performance was unsurprisingly a step up on her two runs over six furlongs last backend as she is bred to be suited by middle distances (1m – 1m4f). She didn’t look the finished article, wasn’t knocked about, showed ability, and appeared suited by today’s track, trip and going.
She now makes her handicap debut off a workable looking mark of 65. She is entitled to strip fitter for the run and is open to plenty of improvement. The Chris Wall yard are banging in the winners (last 14 days: 4-12, 33%), and the first-time booking of James Doyle is hopefully an indication connections are expecting a big-run.
This is a weak looking 11-runner Class 5 Fillies' Handicap and my guess is POSH GIRL won’t need to improve too much to get her head in front. However, as I’ve chosen her based on potential rather than actual proven “form in the book” I can only advise staking 0.5 points each way on her. Both Skybet and Betfair Sportsbook are paying an extra place (4 places instead of 3) on the race.
This four-year-old filly has dropped to 6lb below her last winning mark and hinted at a return to form last time after only going down by 3.25 lengths. She endured a wide trip throughout under a very inexperienced rider. Her regular jockey, Darragh Keenan, takes back over in the saddle today and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her outrun her odds at this level.
The best horse racing tipsters will often suggest the number of points you should stake on each bet. For example, a two-point win, or a one point each way bet. This method can be used for all levels of horse racing bettor, as you decide how much each betting point is worth.
If you start with a total betting pot of £50, each point is worth 50p. If you start with £100, each point is worth £1. Simply divide your total betting pot by 100 to work out how much each point is worth.
Once you boost your betting bank by 50% with winnings, you should increase your point value accordingly. For example, if you build up 150 points, your point value should increase by 50%, so £1 becomes £1.50 and £5 becomes £7.50.
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